Iran takes the battle to Kuwait and Yemen. Tehran cites the limited US military presence in Kuwait as a justification for the attack, and it ignores the fact that this presence goes back decades, mainly performs a deterrent function against any potential invasion, and was not a main base in recent US operations against Iran.
Iran no longer confines the confrontation to its original parties, that is, with the United States and Israel, but rather it is transferring the conflict to neighboring countries and strategic corridors.
Details
It seems that the Houthis in Yemen were entrusted with the task of transforming Bab al-Mandab into an operational alternative to the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran’s ability to use the latter as a pressure card declining due to American military attacks.
On the field, the Iranian regime began implementing part of its threats to expand the conflict by igniting two new border fronts: the first in the southern Red Sea, by threatening to close the “Bab al-Mandab Strait” through the Houthis, and the second in the northern Arabian Gulf through direct and unprecedented threats towards Kuwait.
The danger of this transformation is not limited to Kuwait or the Red Sea, but rather extends to the entire regional security system.
The Iranian leadership also faces complex internal equations, and fears that any impression of defeat will lead to its position being undermined internally, after having spent decades of the country’s resources on building military capabilities and financing wars.
Iran is not only seeking to manage a temporary crisis, but is trying to redraw the strategic map of the region according to its new narrative, so that it emerges from the war, even if it stops early, with areas of influence and rules of engagement different from those that existed before the war.
What is coming from Iranian institutions deserves attention, as the threats against Kuwait have increased in intensity.
It is noted that Iranian behavior is being repeated, as whenever it loses a strategic card, it rushes to open a new front to reproduce the tools of pressure and blackmail.
The answer is not easy, because the analysis of Iranian behavior cannot be based solely on the assumptions of traditional rationality.
Context
The question posed today: How can Kuwait, and with it the Gulf states, deal with this threat?
Iran was not content with verbally threatening Kuwait, but also repeated its bombing of water and electricity facilities, and expanded the circle of threat to include Bahrain as well.
She said that the strikes aim to weaken Iran's ability to attack commercial ships and civilian sailors, noting that US forces targeted dozens of military sites inside Iran this month, coinciding with the resumption of a naval blockade on them.
The US Central Command (Centcom) confirmed that more than 50,000 American soldiers are deployed across the Middle East, and continue to carry out their missions in a state of high readiness and alertness, in conjunction with the continuation of military operations against Iran.
Centcom announced the completion of a new round of strikes against Iran, for the twelfth night in a row, confirming the targeting of military sites that included naval capabilities, warehouses for missiles and drones, coastal surveillance sites, and air defense systems.
Iran did not limit itself to verbally threatening Kuwait, but also repeated its bombing of water and electricity facilities, and expanded the circle of threat to include Bahrain as well.
